Unlike what the polls predicted, this was not a close election. In hindsight, it was never going to be. Here is why
Five Reasons Donald Trump Prevailed While Democrats Faltered
Contrary to polling predictions, this election was not the close race anticipated. In hindsight, it was never truly up for debate. Here’s why Donald Trump clinched the presidency, leading the Republican Party to a landmark victory.
Securing 51% of the popular vote against the Democrats' 47.5%, Trump is projected to surpass 300 electoral votes, well beyond the 270 required (Associated Press, 8 pm IST, November 6).
This marks the first Republican popular vote win since George W. Bush in 2004, and it may turn out to be the party's most impressive showing since 1988, when George H.W. Bush captured over 53% of the national vote and 426 electoral votes.
Here are five core reasons why Donald Trump triumphed — and Kamala Harris, along with the Democrats, stumbled.
1. Anti-Incumbency and Voter Dissatisfaction
Kamala Harris’s nomination for the Democratic ticket didn’t alter the fundamental dynamics of voter discontent. As The Telegraph put it: “incumbents don’t win when voters are miserable.” Under Joe Biden’s administration, inflation soared, job markets faltered, and economic confidence plummeted.
While global factors like the pandemic and Ukraine conflict certainly played a role in the economic downturn, many still blamed Biden. Even if the Biden administration achieved some economic recovery, many voters felt the damage personally, struggling to shake off memories of hardship.
Trump’s tenure, by comparison, was marked by stock market gains, record-low unemployment, and controlled inflation. His appeal centered on the promise of change, an effective draw for voters who yearned for a stronger economy.
2. Rural America’s Robust Support and Turnout
Since the 1960s, rural America has leaned Republican, and higher rural turnout often signals a Republican advantage. Trump’s victory in 2016 was fueled by rural white voters, and 2024 proved no different. Rural counties, particularly in swing states, showed increased turnout and support for Trump, while urban turnout—a critical factor for Democrats—lagged.
Rural voters have felt neglected by the Democratic Party for years, often viewing it as the bastion of urban elites. Despite Democrats’ attempts to court these voters, rural America largely remained skeptical. Iconic missteps, like Hillary Clinton’s infamous “basket of deplorables” comment and the controversial 2024 bestseller White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy, reinforced the perception of a cultural chasm.
3. Minority Support for Trump on the Rise
Historically, Democrats have counted on strong support from minority communities, particularly people of color. But this time, Trump managed to forge a broader coalition, making surprising inroads among traditionally Democratic voters.
In 2024, Trump secured a higher proportion of the non-white vote than any Republican in recent history, eroding the Democrats’ strongholds. In Georgia’s Baldwin County, where 40% of voters are African American, the county went Republican for the first time since 2004. His growing appeal among Hispanic voters was crucial, especially in states like Nevada and Arizona. Trump’s unconventional coalition of rural, working-class voters with pockets of minority support underscored a significant shift.
4. Gender Divide Didn’t Work in Harris’s Favor
The gains Trump made among male voters, particularly in rural areas and among minorities, far outweighed the expected female support Harris hoped to rally. Exit polls cited by Time magazine highlighted a jump in Latino male support for Trump in key battlegrounds, while Harris’s appeal to women didn’t yield the impact she needed.
The Democratic stance on reproductive rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade was expected to galvanize women voters. However, women did not vote in high enough numbers to counter the overwhelming support Trump enjoyed from men, where he led by roughly 22 percentage points. The gender gap proved insurmountable for Harris.
5. Democratic Hypocrisy Versus Trump’s Unfiltered Stance
Democrats have long branded themselves as champions of democracy and liberal values, contrasting with what they paint as the “demagoguery” of Trump. However, the Biden administration’s actions often contradicted these ideals. From steadfast support for Israel amid its controversial actions in Gaza to other foreign policy choices, some voters saw Democratic values as selectively applied.
Arab Americans, particularly, felt alienated by the Democratic stance on issues abroad. In Michigan’s Dearborn, where Arab Americans make up a significant demographic, turnout plummeted to 39.6%—a clear “none of the above” signal.
Trump’s appeal lay in his unvarnished approach; his politics, while divisive, were unmistakable. He presented himself unapologetically, leaving voters free to judge without the gloss of performative values.
While Trump’s promise to “make America great again” may be contentious, his authenticity resonated. Democrats, by contrast, struggled to match words with action, leaving many voters skeptical of their commitment to the causes they espouse.
PUBLISHED BY DAILYBHARAT
