Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to embark on a significant visit to Russia on October 22-23, where he will attend the BRICS Summit in the historic city of Kazan. This high-profile event comes at a critical juncture for global diplomacy, as tensions simmer across borders and alliances are being tested. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs confirmed the trip on Friday, igniting speculation about potential breakthroughs, particularly in the fraught relationship between India and China.
BRICS, an influential coalition of emerging economies, comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, with recent expansions to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE. This summit, chaired by Russia, brings together leaders of nations that represent a significant portion of the world’s population and economic output. However, the spotlight on this gathering isn’t just about economics—it’s about the shifting dynamics of global power, with an intense focus on India, China, and Russia.
The Anticipated Meeting with Putin
A much-anticipated bilateral meeting between PM Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to take place on the sidelines of the summit, according to sources close to the matter. Although officials have spoken under the condition of anonymity, the prospect of this meeting is stirring considerable interest. Russia and India share a deep historical relationship, one built on decades of cooperation in defense, energy, and trade. But this meeting comes against the backdrop of Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine, a situation that has put India in a delicate diplomatic position, balancing its strategic ties with both the West and Moscow.
Putin, who continues to assert Russia’s geopolitical influence, will be hosting leaders in his home country while managing the impact of sanctions and international isolation. For India, maintaining a relationship with Russia is crucial, not only for defense agreements but also for energy security. Modi’s meeting with Putin is expected to focus on deepening these ties, while possibly discussing the broader geopolitical landscape that is rapidly evolving around them.
The Shadow of a Modi-Xi Meeting
Perhaps the most intriguing element of this summit is the looming possibility of a conversation between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed Xi’s attendance at the Kazan summit on Friday, adding fuel to the already smoldering rumors of a high-stakes interaction between the leaders of two of the world’s largest and most powerful nations.
This speculation arises after a series of meetings between Indian and Chinese diplomats, aimed at easing the prolonged military standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This border confrontation, now in its fifth year, has dragged India-China relations to their lowest point in six decades. Tensions over the LAC have severely strained diplomatic ties, with India maintaining that peace on the border is a prerequisite for any normalization of relations. While both countries have expressed a willingness to resolve the standoff, progress has been slow, and the world is watching closely to see if Modi and Xi can find common ground during this summit.
Diplomatic Efforts to Resolve Border Tensions
The diplomatic machinery has been working tirelessly to address the India-China border standoff. The Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on India-China border affairs has convened several times in recent months, including meetings in July and August. During these discussions, both sides agreed to ramp up diplomatic and military contacts in an effort to bridge differences and find a swift resolution to the outstanding issues along the LAC.
The military face-off along this contested border has been a thorn in the side of bilateral relations. What was once a relatively manageable diplomatic issue has escalated into a broader conflict, involving military build-ups, aggressive posturing, and a surge in nationalist rhetoric on both sides. The ongoing tensions have left the region on edge, with both nations unwilling to concede ground—literally and metaphorically.
India’s position remains firm: normal relations cannot be restored until there is peace and stability at the border. New Delhi has repeatedly underscored this point, stating that the overall relationship with China hinges on resolving the border issues. For China, the LAC is only one aspect of a much larger relationship that includes trade and multilateral cooperation. However, the prolonged standoff has eroded trust, making any diplomatic resolution an uphill task.
The Strategic Importance of BRICS
This year’s BRICS Summit is not just another meeting on the global diplomatic calendar—it is a battleground for influence and power in an increasingly multipolar world. The inclusion of new members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE reflects the growing importance of BRICS as a counterbalance to Western-dominated global institutions. For India, participation in BRICS offers a platform to assert its position as a global leader, particularly in areas such as climate change, economic reform, and multilateral cooperation.
But the realpolitik of this summit cannot be ignored. Russia, under pressure from the West, is looking to strengthen its alliances with non-Western powers. China, seeking to expand its influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road, views BRICS as an opportunity to consolidate its standing. India, meanwhile, must navigate these shifting alliances with caution, balancing its relationships with the U.S., the EU, and its BRICS partners.
While the official agenda of the summit will focus on economic cooperation, development, and sustainability, the subtext of the meeting is likely to revolve around the geopolitical tensions that are shaping the world today. The potential meeting between Modi and Xi, if it occurs, could either ease some of these tensions or further complicate the delicate balance that exists between the two Asian giants.
What Lies Ahead
As Prime Minister Modi heads to Russia for the BRICS Summit, the world watches with bated breath. Will the meeting with Putin reinforce the Indo-Russian partnership in the face of global challenges? Can Modi and Xi move past the bitter border standoff and open a new chapter in India-China relations? These are the questions that will define not just this summit, but the future of diplomacy in the region.
India finds itself at a crossroads—caught between old alliances and new realities. The outcome of this summit could shape the trajectory of its foreign policy for years to come, with repercussions that stretch far beyond the borders of Kazan.
PUBLISHED BY DAILYBHARAT
