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Speculation has arisen around Iran's nuclear ambitions after an earthquake struck Aradan County in Semnan Province on October 5, registering 4.4 on the Richter scale. The seismic event triggered rumors, linking it to a potential underground nuclear test, though no official confirmation has been provided. Some social media users have shared data suggesting the quake resembles tremors associated with nuclear tests, but no experts have validated these claims.
The timing of this event is particularly sensitive, as Iran had launched its largest-ever missile attack on Israel just days earlier, firing 180 ballistic missiles. This escalation has fueled concerns, with many wondering if Iran is on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb.
According to The Heritage Foundation, Iran’s nuclear program is in advanced stages. A senior Iranian official claimed earlier this year that the country could conduct a nuclear test within a week of receiving the order. Experts believe Iran has significantly advanced its uranium enrichment, nearing the 90% threshold required for a nuclear weapon, as reported in October 2024 by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
While Iran remains a “threshold country,” it could take up to a year to develop a functional nuclear weapon, and perhaps five years to amass a small arsenal, according to former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Advanced metallurgy, engineering, and electronic systems are required to build a nuclear bomb, which involves numerous tests to ensure reliability.
Experts believe it is unlikely Iran will have a nuclear bomb this year, but they acknowledge it is closer than ever. Israel, an undeclared nuclear power, has been cautious in its response to Iran's provocations, aware of the regional implications of a nuclear-armed Tehran.
